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Thursday, May 7, 2009

Probability for Life on Earth

Probability for Life on Earth

The bottom line of these parameters is this:

Probability for occurrence of all 322 parameters ≈ 10^-388

dependency factors estimate ≈ 10^-96

longevity requirements estimate ≈ 10^14

Probability for occurrence of all 322 parameters ≈ 10^-304

Maximum possible number of life support bodies in universe ≈ 10^22

Thus, less than 1 chance in 10^282(million trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion) exists that even one such life-support body would occur anywhere in the universe without invoking divine miracles.

3 comments:

Steven J. said...

Vera, I think you mean, e.g. "probability for occurrence of all 322 parameters ≈ 10^-388."

That little carat mark above the "6," is commonly used in text messages to indicate that the next numeral is an exponent.

Of course, I have no idea what these parameters are, or to what extent they vary independently of one another, or whether they actually have the probabilities that (I assume) Hugh Ross has assigned to them, or whether other sorts of life might be possible in other conditions. I can't even figure out how they're supposed to relate to one another.

I mean, you say that the "maximum number of life support bodies in the universe is "≈ 1022." Is that "approximately one thousand twenty-two," or "approximately ten billion trillion?" I'll assume the latter, and that by "life support bodies" you mean "star systems that might have habitable planets, circumstances permitting."

How does one go about calculating the odds of actually getting a divine miracle?

verandoug said...

I have been so busy. I'll fix it. Thanks!

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